01 · Explain
Identifying growth drivers
That perennial board discussion: what caused the acceleration — or the deceleration? Five people, five opinions, no alignment. We provide one consistent answer, showing which driver is gaining share over time.
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The questions we answer
One model, every strategic question.
What drives my business?How can I better allocate my resources?What should we do next?
How it works
A complete model of your business, and answers you can trust.
- 01Build the model
We map how your business really works — every driver, every interdependency.
External conditions, seasonality, internal events, inventory, media, promotions, PR, brand, competition and the client pool. We build each relationship exactly as it works in reality — with its lags and feedback loops — and calibrate it on your internal and external data.
- 02Test different models
- 03Validate the findings
- 04Select the right answers
Driver model · full logical map
Illustrative · anonymized client model
Recommendations
Validated answers, turned into decisions you can defend.
- 01Account for the full uncertainty
Every response curve comes with its range of possibilities.
For a single channel, each valid model draws its own saturation curve — the spread is real and we keep it. Across channels, those ranges differ widely, and that difference changes where the next euro should go.
- 02Risk-adjusted recommendations
- 03Clear prioritization of options
Response curves · incremental sales vs spend
Illustrative · anonymized client model
Industries
Retail
Every store, channel and promotion in one view.
- Marketing & Sales Optimization
- Sales driver impact assessment
- Store network coverage: where to open, relocate or close stores
- Promotion and pricing effectiveness, net of cannibalization
- Marketing vs in-store investment balance
- Online vs offline sales interplay across the network
- International expansion: sizing revenue potential of new markets
What 40folds does
Actionable insight, anchored in your business dynamics.
Whether you are assessing a launch, a competitor entry, a campaign, or just tracking daily results — we model your performance drivers explicitly and balance statistical rigour with interpretability.
02 · Scenario planning
Planning for scenarios
What happens if the market holds — or turns? Calibrated, probabilistic projections for each scenario, with their uncertainty, updated as new data lands.
03 · Optimize
Optimizing resources
Project A or B? Over- or under-investing? We compare each project’s share of spend with its share of impact — with the risk made explicit.
Next step